Severe Storm Risk - Bridgeport, AL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts (some to 80 mph) are the main concern, in addition to isolated large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. Additional severe storms are possible across parts of the the central High Plains and Northeast. Midwest and Upper Great Lakes Within a belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow extending from the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse should be the focus for ongoing/morning strong-severe storms over parts of southern MN and vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk for damaging gusts and possibly large hail. These storms should continue developing/spreading east-northeastward into the Upper Midwest along a stationary boundary, where diurnal heating of a moist air mass and steep lapse rates will lead to strong surface-based buoyancy. This, combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, will favor a mix of supercells and organized clusters. Scattered damaging wind gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. Thereafter, high-resolution guidance is in general agreement, depicting a second round of upstream thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening in the vicinity of southern MN -- likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet and related isentropic lift. Similarly, these storms should spread east-northeastward through a strongly unstable air mass and 40-50 kt of effective shear (with increasing clockwise-curved hodographs). Swaths of damaging winds (some gusts near 80 mph possible), large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Central High Plains High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable air mass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. Northeast Enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear) will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the afternoon and again during the evening/nighttime hours. Southeast Along the southern periphery of a midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Appalachians, a belt of 20-30-kt east-southeasterly flow in the 700-500-mb layer will overspread a hot/moist air mass with 4500 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer shear, the extreme buoyancy and well-mixed boundary layer will be favorable for wet microbursts with the stronger convective clusters that evolve. Northern Rockies/High Plains Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a slow-moving midlevel trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding the trough, around 40 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow and a weakly unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon and evening.