Severe Storm Risk - Bridgeton, NC

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC SUMMARY Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA. Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However, poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat. Upper Midwest While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front. Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe threat is expected to remain low.