Severe Storm Risk - Brumley, MO

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI SUMMARY A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible this evening into tonight from eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. Eastern KS/MO late this afternoon through tonight A blocking pattern remains from the Northeast to the northern Rockies, with a weak southern-stream undercut from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley. The remnants of overnight convection persist across MO with multiple outflow surges toward the southeast, and this convection may persist through the afternoon with some potential for isolated wind damage/large hail. Limited 12z soundings show a warm elevated mixed layer is present farther southwest at OUN, where surface temperatures will need to warm into the mid 90s to largely remove convective inhibition. Gradual modification of the outflow near the KS/OK border, on the northeast edge of the warmest surface temperatures, could allow for isolated thunderstorm development this evening. If storms do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing very large hail and a tornado or two. Otherwise, convection will become probable this evening into tonight within the warm advection zone from eastern KS into western MO, where a storm cluster or two will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail into tonight. Mid MO Valley this afternoon/evening Low-level ascent along a stalled baroclinic zone from eastern NE/western IA across the central Dakotas, as well as an embedded shortwave trough pivoting northeastward over SD, will likely support scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be a little stronger to the south (NE/IA) where midlevel flow will be more westerly, coincident with MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Wind profiles and buoyancy are expected to remain weaker farther northwest in SD/ND, though forcing for ascent will be stronger with the midlevel trough and an associated frontal surge from the west. West TX this afternoon/evening High-based thunderstorm development is possible along the dryline later this afternoon/evening as surface temperatures warm into the mid-upper 90s. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-midlevel lapse rates will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts, especially with any semi-persistent storm clusters.