Severe Storm Risk - Cairo, IL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes appear possible in the upper Ohio Valley. Ohio Valley into Western Pennsylvania/New York A large-scale upper trough will continue to advance eastward today across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and OH Valley though the period. The primary surface low is forecast to develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while a trailing cold front moves quickly east-southeastward across the OH Valley and eventually PA/NY. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across central/eastern OH, and strong low-level warm moist advection associated with a 40-50+ kt low-level jet will aid in a gradual increase in low-level moisture ahead of ongoing convection across KY/southern IL into IN. While MLCAPE should only peak around 500-1000 J/kg ahead of the front by early afternoon, strong flow at low/mid-levels will aid thunderstorm clusters in producing scattered severe/damaging winds as they move quickly eastward across the upper OH Valley later today. The potential for a few line-embedded and/or supercell tornadoes is also apparent given sufficient low-level shear. This convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less unstable airmass. Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South Extensive convection is ongoing this morning along/near a southeastward-moving cold front. Isolated damaging winds will remain possible this morning where short line segments/bows can stay ahead of the surging front. Current expectations are for an uptick in thunderstorm intensity to occur this afternoon as activity spreads southeastward into a gradually destabilizing airmass across the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. Scattered damaging winds along consolidating outflows should be the main threat for most areas this afternoon through early evening as low-level lapse rates steepen. But, some potential for supercells remains apparent across parts of TX, where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly enhanced mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear will support the potential for large hail. Even with the primary upper trough remaining to the north, some enhancement to the low-level winds persists, which may support a brief tornado threat in the short term. See Mesoscale Discussion 164 for more details on the near-term severe threat across AR and vicinity.