Severe Storm Risk - Camden, MI

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA SUMMARY An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected today into tonight, with the peak threat centered over Illinois and Indiana. Several intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging wind-driven large hail will all be possible. Midwest including Illinois/Indiana/Missouri/Ohio A very active/potentially dangerous day is expected today into tonight, although some sub-regional forecast details remain a bit uncertain. This is largely attributable to an upscale-growing intense MCS which has been evolving in the predawn hours across central/eastern Iowa, moving south of the I-80 corridor as of 730am CDT. Measured significant wind gusts in excess of 80 mph have been observed before sunrise, including a measured 94 mph measured wind gust in Marshall County, Iowa. This intense and increasingly well-organized MCS will continue to be influenced by an extremely strong southwesterly jet of 70 kt and robust warm advection/moisture transport, and likely continue southeastward from southeast Iowa into north-central/west-central Illinois. This will likely include an increasing potential for surface-based storms and an appreciable uptick in damaging wind/tornado potential early today, especially on the south-southwest flank of the MCS in closer proximity to the northeastward-shifting warm front. Ahead of this early activity, a warm front will push north-northeastward across Indiana/Ohio. New severe storm development, perhaps MCV-influenced and transitioning out of the remnant activity and/or forming near the warm front, is possible across Indiana into Ohio. Shear profiles will be excessive, with tornado risk only conditional on minimal instability being present. The result may be a isolated tornadic supercells. The warm frontal position will need to be monitored northward toward the Indiana/Michigan border vicinity. Even if instability is elevated into Michigan, extreme shear and lift may still yield damaging winds and even a tornado risk. To the west, rapid air mass recovery is expected on the west-southwestern flank of the early day MCS from Missouri into central/possibly parts of northern Illinois, even where appreciable early day MCS impacts occur early. This recovery will be fueled by mid-June insolation/moisture content and robust advection, again attributable to atypically robust (50-65 kt) low/mid-tropospheric west-southwesterly flow by mid-June/diurnal standards. In the presence of 65-70 F surface dewpoints, this will likely result in a corridor of 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. This will likely set the stage for the development of a broken line of intense supercells, potentially favoring prior outflow (or outflow-augmented warm front) and post-MCS recovery zone of differential heating across Illinois and perhaps eventually into western Indiana. Given the clearly supercellular shear profiles and ample venting aloft, linear storm mode is unlikely for most of the event. Long-tracked supercells producing tornadoes and damaging large hail are likely. Some strong to potentially intense tornadoes are plausible given the magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow, and again potentially heightened in vicinity of the prior outflow/warm front. Some damaging wind threat will likely also increase by evening as storms continue across Indiana into Ohio and potentially southward toward the Ohio River. Upper Texas Coast/Middle Gulf Coast The NHC forecast shows Potential Tropical Cyclone One moving into southwest Louisiana by this evening. Wind fields associated with this system will strengthen out of the south ahead of it, resulting in areas of strong low-level shear from the upper Texas coast across southern portions of Louisiana and eventually into southern Mississippi. Mid to upper 70 F dewpoints will contribute to modest CAPE values, supporting embedded stronger cells with tornadic potential.