Severe Storm Risk - Camdenton, MO

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to Lower Missouri Valley. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are possible. 20Z Update The forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The main changes made to this outlook were to expand severe probabilities farther to the east to account for an uptick in severe potential later tonight, as depicted by some of the latest high-resolution guidance. Overall, uncertainties remain regarding precisely where the strongest storms are going to occur. OK Mesonet data over the past few hours have depicted some lowering of dewpoints in west-central OK, with a slightly diminished CU field noted. However, several guidance members depict supercellular development in the 02-06Z period over northern OK, likely in part to the strengthening of a low-level jet. Given impressive shear profiles and 8.5-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates expected in this region overnight, it is plausible that the strongest storms for the remainder of the period (to 12Z Monday morning) may occur here, with 2+ inch diameter hail and perhaps strong tornadoes. The primary uncertainty for introducing higher tornado probabilities over northern OK is the possible late storm initiation and associated boundary layer stabilization, which may dampen the robustness of tornado production with these storms. Visible satellite imagery depicts more agitated CU centered over Baylor County, TX, which may hint at locally higher/less conditional severe threat across far north-central TX later this afternoon and evening. However, synoptic forcing is weak, and if storms form, they will likely be sparse, precluding the addition of higher severe probabilities in this region at this time.