Severe Storm Risk - Camillus, NY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI/KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York. Southern High Plains into KS and the mid MS Valley Regional 12 UTC raob data over the southern Great Plains showed a very moist boundary layer (15-17 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios at Norman and Lamont, OK and Midland and Fort Worth, TX) streaming northward. Late morning surface mesoanalysis places a front extending southwestward from a surface low over northern Lower MI through the mid MS/lower MO Valleys and into southeast CO. The frontal zone is forecast to gradually shift south, primarily after dark. Ample heating via clear skies through mid afternoon will contribute to moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) developing along and south of the aforementioned front, westward to a triple point, and southward into west TX east of a dryline. The erosion of convective inhibition will likely lead to initial widely scattered storm development over central KS per recent CAM data by mid-late afternoon. Strong mid to high-level flow will support supercells early in the convective life cycle with some of the stronger thunderstorms. Storm coverage is forecast to increase through the early evening from northwest OK and KS into the lower MO Valley. Will maintain previous categorical risk with minimal change. However, have enlarged the level-1 wind intensity and introduced a level-1 hail intensity to account for organized storm modes and a risk for hail 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter from the eastern TX Panhandle into central KS. The overall tornado risk is uncertain and will be limited to a certain extent by modest low-level shear despite the supercell mode and a very moist boundary layer. A few small clusters will likely evolve during the evening with a mix of supercellular and multicells capable of severe gusts 60-80 mph. The severe threat should become more isolated with time given increasing nocturnal stabilization and widespread storm interactions. Parts of western/central NY A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will continue to move quickly eastward through eastern Ontario through the Northeast today. An attendant surface low will eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. Increasing low-level moisture and afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s will promote modest buoyancy, although clouds/precipitation and relatively warm low to mid-level temperatures result in some uncertainty regarding airmass destabilization. Increasing deep-layer westerly flow (particularly around 850 mb) amid low-level southwesterlies will result in notably curved low-level hodographs. As a result, any sustained surface-based storms could organize, supporting a threat for localized wind damage and possibly a tornado. Modest buoyancy is expected to limit the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe potential.