There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.
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National Severe Storm Outlook
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging gusts and an isolated tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and far west Texas today into tonight.
NM and far west TX this afternoon into early tonight
An initial shortwave trough will continue to eject north-northeastward over WY as an upstream wave evolves into a new closed low over the lower CO River Valley. A surface cyclone will develop from eastern MT into MB in advance of the lead shortwave trough, with a trailing baroclinic zone across CO/northwest NM and central AZ. A moisture plume persists along and southeast of the baroclinic zone, with the most favorable moisture profiles for thunderstorm development expected this afternoon/evening across NM.
Forcing for ascent will be relatively weak across NM this afternoon, so surface heating and terrain influences will drive widely scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s (depending on elevation). Observed boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s and the warming temperatures will contribute to MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Long, straight hodographs will persist beneath a belt of enhanced mid-upper flow and will favor supercells this afternoon in NM, with some potential for growth into small clusters/line segments. Large hail and occasional severe outflow gusts are expected to be the primary threats, though an isolated tornado may also occur. The severe threat will peak late afternoon and diminish by early tonight.
