Severe Storm Risk - Capitan, NM

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS SUMMARY Isolated large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon/evening across central/eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. An isolated damaging wind gust will also be possible across Far West Texas. Southern and Eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas A midlevel shortwave trough is expected to eject northeastward across the Four Corners region ahead of stronger height falls approaching the Pacific Northwest. Although this trough should gradually weaken, associated large-scale ascent will overspread the northwestern periphery of a persistent low- to midlevel moist plume extending across New Mexico. A slow-moving, northeast to southwest-oriented baroclinic zone will provide a focus for convective development, with differential heating and terrain-induced vertical circulations likely contributing to thunderstorm initiation during the afternoon. The thermodynamic environment across the region will be somewhat complex. Steeper midlevel lapse rates will generally reside northwest of the surface warm sector, closer to the ejecting shortwave trough, while the richer low-level moisture will remain displaced farther southeast. Additionally, repeated convective episodes over the preceding several days have acted to temper lapse rates across portions of the warm sector. This, combined with potentially extensive cloud cover, should limit the magnitude and spatial extent of destabilization. That said, surface dewpoints in the middle 50Fs to near 60F should support pockets of MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg where sufficient insolation occurs. This degree of buoyancy may prove sufficient for sustained deep convection. Given forecast wind fields across the region indicative of deep-layer shear between 35-40 knots, the CAPE-shear parameter space will support supercells capable of large hail, generally in the 1-1.5 inch range. Additionally, forecast hodographs suggest enough low-level curvature to support a tornado or two with any sustained, discrete supercell. Despite the seemingly favorable ingredients within the large-scale environment, the severe weather threat should remain somewhat conditional. Questions remains surrounding both the degree and spatial extent of instability, and subsequently the spatial overlap of favorable thermodynamics and kinematic fields. This uncertainty limits confidence in a more substantial severe threat. That said, a more focused corridor or two of higher severe potential could become apparent later today as mesoscale details and convective evolution become better resolved. Oregon Coast Isolated thunderstorms may occur near the Oregon coast early on Sunday as the cold core of an approaching midlevel trough moves into the area. Shallow convective cells may become sufficiently deep to produce sporadic lightning. Southeast Florida Across southeast Florida, moist northeasterly flow along the western periphery of a midlevel low over the Bahamas may support occasional thunderstorms. Weak forecast vertical shear and warm mid-level temperatures should limit any organized severe potential.