Severe Storm Risk - Cartersville, GA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUMMARY Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley Larger-scale mid-level troughing over the Great Basin and central Rockies will gradually shift eastward with falling heights spreading east across the central Great Plains and lower MO Valley through daybreak Sunday. A cold front draped in a general west-southwest to east-northeast orientation from central High Plains to the mid MS Valley will slowly push south. A seasonably moist airmass ahead of the boundary over KS/MO into northwestern OK will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Scattered storm development is eventually expected during the late afternoon and early evening as convective inhibition is locally eroded. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8.5-9.5 deg C/km) will aid in storm vigor and the potential for strong evaporative cooling with the more intense cores. Have introduced an intensity level 1 for the wind hazard (60-75 mph gusts) where a combination of HREF ensemble guidance and higher PW and lapse rates overlap. A few short-lived supercells are possible given the adequate speed and directional shear according to model forecast soundings across the KS vicinity. Large hail will be possible with the stronger updrafts. This threat will likely diminish during the evening. Central High Plains The airmass north of a cool front will heat/destabilize through mid-late afternoon ahead of the aforementioned upper-level trough impinging on the region from the west. Some easterly component to the low-level flow will aid in maintaining a fetch of sufficient moisture (mainly 50s deg F surface dewpoints) into much of the central High Plains. Models indicate scattered storms developing near/east of I-25 with increasing storm coverage expected through the early evening. With time, a loosely organized band of a storms (including some supercells) will probably grow upscale and transition to a linear cluster as it moves east across eastern CO into western KS. Have included 15-percent wind probabilities across eastern CO to account for this favorable storm mode evolution for severe gusts. There is some indication this activity may continue into western KS during the late evening and early overnight, prompting the inclusion of low severe-wind probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding the character/intensity of this activity across western KS (e.g., 19/06z MPAS-HT), especially if the depth of post-frontal airmass and near-surface static stability are similar to the 19/06z NAM depiction. Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians/Southeast West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the northeastern third of the U.S. today. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be oriented from the Ohio Valley southward into the southern Appalachians, along which moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are forecast during the afternoon. A few of the stronger downdrafts may be capable of a strong to locally severe wind-gust threat (50 to 60 mph) capable of wind damage.