Severe Storm Risk - Casey, IA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN SD...SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHERN IA THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MT SUMMARY Severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) remain possible this evening from eastern South Dakota into northern Iowa and southwest Minnesota. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts also remain possible across parts of Montana. SD into southern MN/northern IA/far northeast NE A loosely organized storm cluster is moving across eastern SD this evening. Additional intensification remains possible this evening, as this cluster encounters extreme downstream buoyancy, with MLCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg within a very moist (dewpoints around 80 F) environment. The ongoing cluster has produced measured gusts of 60-80 mph, so any notable intensification could lead to an increase in potential for gusts in the 75-90 mph range. Isolated hail and perhaps a tornado also remain possible through dusk with this cluster. Increasing CINH with time and eastward extent should eventually result in a weakening trend later tonight, though an organized severe threat could eventually approach parts of southeast MN/northeast IA into northwest IL overnight. Farther northwest, a separate storm cluster is moving across north-central SD, within a similarly favorable environment. In the short term, this cluster may continue to move east-southeastward along a surface boundary with a continued severe-wind threat. Eventually, weakening buoyancy in the wake of the southeast SD cluster will tend to result in a weakening trend with this cluster. Central/eastern Montana Strong to locally severe storms may persist through dusk across parts of central/eastern MT, within a well-mixed environment that is favorable for severe-wind potential. Increasing CINH will result in an eventual weakening trend later tonight, though remnant outflows may still produce strong to locally severe gusts as storms diminish. Southern AZ Widely scattered storms and increasing outflow may continue to support strong to localized severe gusts within a very hot and well-mixed environment across parts of southern AZ. Weak deep-layer flow/shear should keep any remaining threat generally disorganized.