Severe Storm Risk - Catoosa, OK

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUMMARY Numerous severe thunderstorms remain likely this afternoon into tonight, with the peak threat centered over Illinois and Indiana. Intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging wind-driven large hail will all be possible. 20z Update An extremely complicated forecast scenario will continue this afternoon in the wake of a persistent morning convective cluster. An anomalously strong upper trough and jet are still forecast to move over parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. This will support renewed convective development near the trailing outflow from the morning cluster over the Midwest and along the synoptic cold front from northeast MO into parts of KS and far northern OK. Rapid modification of the air mass along and north of the trailing outflow boundary/effective warm front still appears plausible given 1-2 mb/hr pressure falls, ongoing low-level moisture advection and strong heating ahead of the deepening surface cyclone. A focused mesoscale corridor of strong to intense tornado potential remains evident from east of St Louis, MO, across south-central IL and into west-central IN, where RAP soundings show 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and exceptionally strong low and mid-level shear with ESRH upwards of 400-600 m2/s2. The primary uncertainty remains the development and maintenance of supercells in the wake of the MCS. CAM guidance remains insistent on a few intense supercells organizing in this corridor from late afternoon into the evening with a risk for strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. The threat may persist into portions of eastern IN, KY and western OH tonight. Across central MO into KS and OK, a very unstable and moderately sheared air mass (18z TOP/SGF RAOBS) will promote rapid supercell development in the next couple of hours along and ahead of the sagging cold front. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible. As large-scale forcing for ascent moves away this evening, storm coverage should slowly diminish, though the more intense supercells may linger well into the evening with an all hazards risk. Primary changes to the outlook were to remove northern portions of the ENH and MDT risk areas where substantial air mass recovery is unlikely. Wind probabilities were increased on the southern end near the OH River to account for clustering of expected upstream development. Elsewhere, minor changes were made to trim probabilities behind the cold front. See the previous discussion for additional information.