Severe Storm Risk - Causey, NM

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central/southern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also possible across portions of the Upper Midwest. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards. Central/Southern Plains A prominent mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over NM with a couple of weak disturbances cresting the ridge. A lead vorticity max associated with morning showers/thunderstorms over western KS will continue slowly east-southeastward while an upstream disturbance over central CO moves into the central High Plains by late afternoon. In the low levels, a cold front extending southwestward from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains will undergo frontolysis across the central High Plains. Farther south, a stationary boundary sagging southward to near I-40 in the TX Panhandle will extend east-northeast into north-central OK. North of the TX-OK boundary, a moisture plume with slightly richer low-level moisture analyzed this morning protrudes westward from north-central OK into the High Plains. Weak ascent associated with the disturbance moving into the High Plains later this afternoon combined with very strong heating will favor isolated to widely scattered initial storm development over the High Plains, particularly near the Raton Mesa where upslope flow is expected. Models generally show moderate buoyancy developing by mid afternoon with the stronger mid to high-level flow across western NE and decreasing with south extent. Supercells will be favored initially over parts of western NE with an attendant hail risk and with some clustering possible during the evening (severe-wind hazard). Farther south, have upgraded to 30-percent wind probabilities due primarily to increased confidence in a focused severe-wind threat forecast across the TX Panhandle late this afternoon through the evening. There is seemingly large model agreement/notable consistency in 00z and 12z AI and CAM ensembles, and time-lagged CAM explicit wind guidance and depictions of a linear mode within a very well mixed boundary layer which will be favorable for severe gusts (60-85 mph). Eastern Minnesota/Western Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan A mid-level shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level westerly jet) will dig southeastward from southern Manitoba toward northern MN and Lake Superior through the period. An adequately moist and destabilizing airmass will develop immediately ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front by mid/late afternoon. Models show a narrow zone of around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across the eastern half of MN/far northwest WI ahead of the front by late afternoon. Some supercells will be possible initially, aside from more prevalent multicells/clusters. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazards before storms gradually weaken during the evening. Southeast While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are expected to remain weak, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will exist along/south of a stalled front across the Southeast today. As low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon, isolated pulse-type thunderstorms capable of producing water-loaded downdrafts and perhaps localized wind damage via 50-60 mph gusts. See MCD #2125 for short-term details regarding a potential isolated wind damage threat developing early this afternoon.