Severe Storm Risk - Celina, TN

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO CAROLINAS SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are likely today across the northern High Plains including northeast Wyoming and eastern Montana into the western Dakotas, with storms capable of very large hail, very strong outflow winds (80+ mph), and tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight A rather active severe-weather scenario is anticipated regionally later today, including the potential for intense/locally significant severe storms. A lead shortwave trough/speed max will continue to approach through late today, with the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreading the region including 50+ kt southwesterlies above 5km AGL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s F will continue to spread northward regionally, to the east of a deepening surface low across northeast Wyoming toward the far western Dakotas, and a sharpening lee trough/dryline across a more prevalent north/south extent of the High Plains. This low-level moistening will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Great Basin and north-central Rockies. Initial surface-based development is expected near the surface low/trough near the Big Horn Mountains toward the Wyoming/Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. The maturing stronger initial storms will almost certainly be supercellular owing to moderate to large CAPE and a strong wind field. The risk for large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is greatest near this aforementioned border region where supercells are forecast early in the convective life cycle, although additional/somewhat more discrete development will also likely occur a bit later farther southeastward across northwest South Dakota. A few tornadoes are also possible particularly in the more moisture-rich environment near the surface triple point, but relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and a transition to upscale growth may temper the tornado threat, particularly with northward extent either side of the Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. As more storms develop leading to storm mergers and coalescing outflow, a linear cluster will likely develop into a maturing/accelerating bow echo into western North Dakota this evening, with significant/intense thunderstorm winds (80+ mph) possible. Severe storms will likely develop eastward tonight across the Dakotas, and prior to that, diurnally enhanced, but more isolated intense, development is plausible as far south as western Nebraska with large hail and damaging winds. Northern Intermountain West including northern UT/western WY Influenced by a lead shortwave trough/speed max associated with the prominent upper-level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest, strong to locally severe thunderstorm potential will probably exist early today. The prolifically strong wind field and modest destabilization will tend to focus today across northern Utah, southeast Idaho into western Wyoming, including the Star Valley vicinity. Severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail may occur. Mid-South/Tennessee/southern Kentucky to North Carolina Multiple MCVs, including across far south-central Missouri and southeast Kansas at midday, will influence the region as they progress east-southward generally toward Kentucky and Tennessee. Related flow enhancement is evident in regional WSR-88d VWP data, and particularly in the 12z Lamont, OK observed sounding (40+ kt 4-9km AGL). See Mesoscale Discussion 1346 for additional short-term details. These MCVs will influence and semi-focus thunderstorm development within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer from the southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas border vicinity into Kentucky and Tennessee. This includes the possibility of some supercells and well-organized clusters in the presence of 35-40 kt effective shear. Pockets of wind damage will be the most common risk, but some tornado potential will exist as well. Additional severe storms capable of wind damage are also expected farther eastward into the Carolinas this afternoon through around mid-evening. Texas Panhandle/West Texas late this afternoon/evening Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south, strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon. Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.