Severe Storm Risk - Ceredo, WV

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE BLACK HILLS SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorm development is possible today, particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the northern High Plains to the Black Hills vicinity. Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley Radar-mosaic imagery this morning shows a trio of MCVs (e.g., western KY, southwest MO, east-central OK) moving east across the general region. Ongoing linear clusters of thunderstorms associated with the MO and KY MCVs cast considerable uncertainty regarding destabilization across the Ozarks into the lower OH Valley. Nonetheless, a residual baroclinic zone aided perhaps by differential heating along the remnant outflow will favor renewed storm development later this afternoon. A seasonably moist airmass (lower 70s F dewpoints) in proximity to some enhancement of the background westerly flow, will likely contribute to strong to severe storms developing by mid to late afternoon through the evening. A couple of tornadoes are possible with supercell activity as well as scattered damaging gusts with the more organized multicells and related clusters. High Plains A seasonably anomalous upper trough over the West will feature a lead disturbance ejecting northeastward into the northern High Plains during the Day 1 period. Pronounced lee troughing is forecast with a surface low expected to evolve over southeast MT by late tonight. Congruent with prior forecast thinking, a corridor of at least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization is expected across the High Plains. Strengthening large-scale ascent and ample vertical shear downstream of the digging large-scale troughing will favor organized severe thunderstorm development late this afternoon through evening. Supercells and evolving organized clusters will pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered storms will likely develop/mature and propagate east during the evening. Hail and wind are the primary hazards with this activity and this severe risk will probably linger into the late evening. Mid-Atlantic states The southern periphery of stronger mid to high-level westerly flow is forecast across northern Mid-Atlantic region. The northern rim of richer low-level moisture (lower 70s F dewpoints) arches from eastern NC into southeast VA. The overlap of moderate westerly flow and weak destabilization will probably support scattered thunderstorms capable of an isolated risk of strong to locally severe/damaging gusts (50-60 mph). New England An upper shortwave trough over Ontario/Lower Great Lakes this morning will move east across New England by this evening. Considerable cloud cover will limit the overall magnitude of destabilization, but upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE are forecast to develop by midday. Elongated hodographs beneath a 100+ kt 250-mb speed max will aid in storm organization in the form of possibly a couple of supercells and organized multicells. Isolated coverage of large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms.