Severe Storm Risk - Chesapeake, VA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST STATES THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Severe storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail are expected across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind are possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. 20z Update IL/IN An evolving convective cluster across northern IL/IN and southern lower MI should continue to move south/southeast this afternoon. Low-level convergence is maximized along a weak CAPE/ThetaE gradient laying roughly near the IN/OH border. CAM guidance and observation trends suggest this may provide a focus for convection through this afternoon and evening gradually turning the cluster further southward. Moderate buoyancy and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary could support organized linear/bowing structures with severe/damaging gusts and perhaps some QLCS tornadoes possible across northern IN and possibly extending into western OH. However, leading stratiform and cloud cover could limit the eastern extent of the higher severe risk, and confidence in the convective evolution is very low. Additional development has been noted along the western flank of the complex over northern IL, with another cluster of storms exiting southern WI. It is possible that these new storms, and additional ascent tied to a westerly low-level jet will support a second cluster of severe storms eventually organizing and moving more south across IL/IN. Hot surface temperatures (90-95 F) and a very large reservoir of extreme buoyancy (MUCAPE 4000-5000 J/kg) extending into IL and western IN would support a risk for widespread severe/damaging gusts. Given the increased confidence in damaging winds this afternoon/evening, have shifted 30% wind probabilities farther south in IN. Central and northern High Plains Scattered storms ongoing over the high plains should increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates could promote severe wind gusts with stronger downdrafts, along with isolated hail. Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook, see MCD#1767 and MCD#1768 for more information. Additional scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of the Mid Atlantic/Southeast and southern AZ. These storms should continue this afternoon with potential for sporadic damaging gusts owing to heavy water loading and moderate buoyancy. Limited vertical shear and only modest clustering suggest severe potential will remain isolated before diminishing overnight.