Severe Storm Risk - Chicago/Midway Arpt, IL

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA SUMMARY Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of Nebraska into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms are also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. SD/NE Water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over central WY approaching the Black Hills region. This, along with remnant outflow boundaries from recent convection, will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over western SD/NE by mid/late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell structures will promote the risk of very large hail in the initial storms over the Black Hills. Activity is expected to organized into a bowing MCS during the evening and track roughly along the NE/SD border with a risk of severe wind and hail. NE/IA/Northwest MO Moderately strong southerly low-level winds over KS will maintain a hot/humid air mass across southeast NE today. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify along pre-existing outflow boundaries by late afternoon and develop/move into IA. Large CAPE in this region (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening hours. IA/IL/IN/MI/OH A remnant outflow boundary is also tracking eastward across the MS river into northern IL. The air mass ahead of this boundary is very moist and unstable with dewpoints in the mid 70s and peak diurnal CAPE values expected to exceed 3500 J/kg. Models differ on convective evolution of storms that form in this regime, but there is potential for an upscale-growing MCS producing a swath of wind damage from northern IL into parts of IN/MI and northwest OH this evening. NY/PA/NJ Hot and humid conditions are present across much of the northeast states today, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE. It is unclear how many thunderstorms will form in this region today given weak forcing. However, the environment is conditionally favorable for damaging winds in any convective clusters that can persist. TN Valley/Southern Appalachians A widespread moist and unstable air mass will aid in the development of disorganized and slow-moving thunderstorms again this afternoon and early evening. Weak winds aloft suggest chaotic storm evolutions, but the strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging winds gusts and small hail throughout the area.