Severe Storm Risk - Chimney Rock, CO

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TX SUMMARY Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico and far west Texas today. NM/Four Corners/Far West TX Recent satellite imagery continues to show a cyclone centered over the Lower CO River Valley with expansive ridging downstream from the western Gulf through the Upper Great Lakes. A shortwave trough is currently progressing through the southeastern periphery of the Lower CO Valley cyclone over northwestern Mexico. General expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue northeastward today with some loss of amplitude as it moves within the confluent flow between the western CONUS upper low and central/eastern CONUS ridging. Persistence of mostly southwesterly flow aloft will continue to promote showers and thunderstorms from the Four Corners vicinity across NM and into far west TX. The airmass becomes more stable with northern extent but should remain buoyant enough to support continued thunderstorms. More widespread cloud cover is anticipated across northern portions of the region, but filtered daytime heating may result in greater destabilization and attendant risk of a few strong/severe storms capable of hail. Greater buoyancy is expected farther south, where dewpoints will likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s amid afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s. Moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear will persist across area as well, supporting the potential for supercells. Additionally, a more southeasterly component to the low-level flow is possible from south-central/southeast NM into far west TX, which could support slower storm motions and a relatively greater potential for hail and tornadoes. Some very large hail greater than 2" in diameter is also more possible here. This region should also experience greater large-scale ascent as the shortwave trough moves through during the late afternoon/early evening. This greater ascent could result in a more linear mode and the potential for a few bowing segments. Overall, there appears to be a relatively greater severe potential from south-central NM into southeast NM and far west TX compared to areas farther north and west.