There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.
--------------------
National Severe Storm Outlook
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado will remain possible across parts of the Southeast.
Synopsis
Evening water vapor imagery showed an upper low over MN/WI with a second upper low, moving from the Four Corners into the central Rockies. A pronounced shortwave trough over MS and AL is forecast to move eastward ahead of a belt of enhanced mid-level flow that extends over the lower third of the CONUS between the two more dominant upper-level cyclones. An associated surface low over the Great Lakes will move eastward as a trailing cold front moves across the Midwest and Southeast.
Southeast
Evening radar and satellite observations show a band of predominately disorganized convection has evolved along and ahead of the cold front from eastern TN, to south-central AL, while a more isolated convective cluster was ongoing over eastern GA. The environment ahead of the front remains moist, with mid 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints across much of the Southeast. However, lapse rates remain quite poor generally around 6 C/km (00z BMX sounding) which, along with the loss of diurnal heating is limiting buoyancy. Still, area RAP profiles show around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE persisting into the evening across eastern AL and into GA, which should be sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts.
The enhanced flow aloft is also supporting marginal deep-layer shear (30-35 kt) for storm organization with clusters and transient supercells having been observed. Despite deep and low-level shear forecast to weaken overnight, modestly curved hodographs may support occasional rotation, with a low-end risk for a brief tornado or damaging gust this evening. Eventually storms should weaken as the environment becomes increasingly stable over eastern GA and the western Carolinas overnight.
