Severe Storm Risk - Columbus/OSU Arpt, OH

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO NORTHERN OHIO SUMMARY Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms with strong gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening, as well as from northeast Indiana into northern Ohio. High Plains this afternoon/evening In response to a shortwave trough digging south-southeastward over BC/AB, a closed low over the Great Basin will evolve into a more open wave and eject northeastward to the northern High Plains by early Thursday. An associated, deep lee cyclone will develop eastward from MT to near the ND/SK border, with a lee trough extending southward into the central/southern High Plains. East of the lee trough, low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the 55-60 F range) will spread northward today from TX/OK to KS/NE. Diurnal mixing will likely limit the quality of the moisture farther north into the Dakotas. Thus, a few high-based thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon/evening from NE into SD along the lee trough with deep mixing, where inverted-v profiles will favor strong outflow gusts. A narrow zone of moderate buoyancy is expected along the dryline from southwest NE and western KS into west TX, where deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells. Only limited height falls and a warm elevated mixed layer, in combination with somewhat limited parcel residence times in the dryline circulation, suggest that storm coverage will be isolated at best. There will be a conditional threat for isolated large hail with any sustained storms. Dakotas tonight The threat for thunderstorms may increase tonight as a result of ascent preceding the midlevel trough, and a modest increase in low-level moisture with a strengthening low-level jet. Much of the convection will likely be rooted above the surface, but could still produce strong outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. IN/OH this afternoon/evening Residual low-level moisture and surface heating along a diffuse baroclinic zone will support thunderstorm development this afternoon from northeast IN into northern OH. Though deep-layer wind profiles will not be particularly strong, relatively cool midlevel temperatures and weak-moderate buoyancy could support marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms.