Severe Storm Risk - Constableville, NY

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...PARTS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on today. Synopsis An upper-level low will move into Saskatchewan/Manitoba today, with west southwesterly flow aloft overspreading portions of northern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A frontal boundary will extend from a surface low across Manitoba southward across the Upper Midwest into the Central Plains, with a dryline extending southward into the Southern Plains. Across the Northeast, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will impinge upon the northeastern periphery of a high amplitude ridge across the eastern US. Upper Midwest/Great Lakes A southwesterly low-level jet is set to increase across central/northern Wisconsin by late afternoon. This in combination with forcing for ascent from the upper-level trough should support convection developing near the surface boundary across northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. To the south/east of the boundary, a very moist air mass with 70s dewpoints is forecast. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across this region amid strong deep layer shear profiles, supporting initial supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. With time, clustering may support potential for an increase in damaging wind potential. Guidance also suggests further development may occur by late evening across portions of Nebraska into northern Iowa as the surface boundary begins to shift northward with a short-wave impulse rotating through the upper trough. This will pose some potential for damaging wind and hail through the late evening/overnight period. Forecast soundings suggests this activity may remain elevated, leading to lower confidence in higher probabilities. Northeast A belt of 45 kt northwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Guidance suggests that thunderstorms will develop across the region by the afternoon. Deep layer shear around 35-40 kts and moderate instability thunderstorm development is forecast across the region. This will support transient supercells before one or more clusters/bowing segments develop and spread south and eastward with damaging wind potential. A stronger supercell or two may be capable of a tornado or two. Southern/Central High Plains A mid-level shortwave will eject across the central Plains this afternoon, with widely scattered thunderstorm development expected near the surface trough/dryline in the afternoon/evening. A southerly low-level jet is progged to increase across the area through the evening. Moderate to strong instability is progged amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Initial high-based convection will pose potential for large hail and damaging wind. With clustering/consolidation along outflows, the damaging wind threat will increase with potential for instances of significant winds 70-80 mph. Southeastern US Forecast guidance depicts 25-35 kt mid-level northeasterly flow on the southern periphery of an upper high centered over the OH/TN Valley. A very moist air mass will be present across much of the region and strong destabilization is forecast amid strong daytime heating. Forecast soundings depict around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes, supporting some risk of organized cells/clusters. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as activity develops west/southwest through early evening.