Severe Storm Risk - Cottonwood, AL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE UPPER COAST OF TEXAS...AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUMMARY Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas, and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast. Synopsis Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east across Far West TX and Chihuahua. This upper feature will move quickly east and weaken while moving into increasingly confluent flow through the base of a larger-scale eastern U.S. trough. As a weak cyclone develops east along a west-east draped front from south TX northeastward to the mouth of the MS River, strengthening low to mid-level flow associated with warm advection will overspread the northern Gulf of America into the FL Panhandle tonight. Strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters have episodically developed and moved east across south-central TX this morning immediately downstream of the upper disturbance. Localized hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms through the mid-late afternoon. A shallow post-frontal stable layer near the surface and weak instability lended confidence in removing low tornado probabilities over TX this outlook update. See MCD #632 regarding short-term details. Farther east, little in the way of destabilization is currently depicted by the latest model guidance to the north of the front, specifically from near Lake Pontchartrain eastward over the near shore waters to the south of Mobile Bay and the western FL Panhandle. North of the boundary, a low risk for large hail will be maintained as a couple of stronger elevated storms intensify later this evening into the overnight and traverse eastward in tandem with increasing large-scale ascent/strengthening flow fields. Near and immediately south of the front, have focused the tornado and wind probabilities this outlook update to the proximity of surface-based inflow parcels potentially being realized by organized storm modes.