Severe Storm Risk - Cottonwood Heights, UT

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central Plains mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible. Central Plains Recent surface observations show a front extending from the central High Plains of eastern CO into KS, and continuing east-northeastward into the mid MS Valley/Upper Midwest. Isolated/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning to the north of the front across parts of central NE into north-central KS, likely aided by weak low-level warm advection over the southern/central Plains. While isolated hail may occur in the short-term with this activity given weak MUCAPE and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer, current expectations are for a more robust severe threat to develop across the central Plains later this afternoon and evening. Initially high-based thunderstorms will likely form by early to mid afternoon along/east of the higher terrain of eastern CO/southeast WY in a weak low-level upslope flow regime, and as modest large-scale ascent preceding an eastward-moving shortwave trough overspreads the central Rockies/High Plains. Greater low-level moisture (60s surface dewpoints) will be in place with eastward extent across KS/NE, and these thunderstorms should gradually strengthen as they move eastward. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough to support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail, with steep mid-level lapse rates and ample instability in the hail-growth zone possibly supporting isolated very large hail (2+ inches). While exact details of subsequent convective evolution remain somewhat unclear, these initial supercells will probably tend to interact/grow upscale in some form along and near the surface front from late afternoon through the evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens over the central High Plains. An increasing threat for at least scattered severe/damaging winds should be realized as one or more bowing clusters spreads east-southeastward across NE/KS. Isolated significant gusts (75+ mph) may occur with the more intense portions of these clusters. Some risk for a few tornadoes should also exist, mainly late this afternoon into the evening with either persistent supercells or embedded within clusters as 0-1 km SRH increases in tandem with the low-level jet. A severe wind threat may continue through the overnight hours farther east across KS and perhaps into parts of western MO. Northern Utah/Eastern Idaho into Western/Central Wyoming A weak mid-level shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin this morning will continue to move eastward across the northern/central Rockies today. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain limited along/west of the higher terrain, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates will exist with a very well-mixed boundary layer this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will support east-northeastward developing convection through the afternoon/evening across parts of northern UT/eastern ID into western/central WY. This activity may pose a threat for occasional strong to severe winds, but the overall severe threat should tend to remain isolated due to the weak instability forecast. Gulf Coast/Southeast Modest flow aloft (generally 25 kt or less) will exist today across much of the Gulf Coast/Southeast, as a mid-level anticyclone remains anchored over the Gulf. A very moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s, exists along/south of convection ongoing from parts of coastal/east TX into the lower MS Valley. Given the weak mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear, overall thunderstorm organization and intensity should remain fairly limited. Even so, occasional damaging winds could occur as the loosely organized cluster spreads east-southeastward into a destabilizing airmass across the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states through the afternoon. Western Pennsylvania Within west-northwesterly mid-level flow, low-topped thunderstorms should develop/move across parts of western PA and vicinity this afternoon. Instability will remain weak, but modestly enhanced flow and steep low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong gusts from convective downdrafts. The overall magnitude of the threat still appears too limited for low severe wind probabilities.