Severe Storm Risk - Courtland, MN

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUMMARY Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, and parts of the Great Basin. Synopsis Ahead of a shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, the models indicate a lead disturbance (possible MCV) and associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow progressing through ND into northern MN on Tuesday. Elsewhere, a shortwave trough will move through the Northeast, while a mid-level low lingers over the Mid South/lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary feature of interest is a front that is expected to become quasi-stationary from western SD through central or southern MN and northern WI by afternoon. A surface low is projected to develop along the boundary in western SD with a lee trough trailing south from that feature into the central High Plains. Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest Clusters of elevated thunderstorms tied to the lead disturbance may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday across portions of eastern MT and western ND, to the north of the surface front. Modest instability and some vertical-shear enhancement may support an isolated large hail threat through the morning, mainly in southern ND. In the wake of the early-day storms, low-level, upslope flow will strengthen across the northern High Plains in response to the approach of a shortwave trough from the west. The associated increase in low-level moisture will coincide with a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates to yield MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg from central MT into western SD with upwards of 2000-3500 J/kg farther east along the front in SD and MN. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon within the upslope regime from central into eastern MT and along the front across SD and perhaps MN. Sufficiently strong vertical shear is forecast from MT east along the front in SD to support supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large hail and damaging winds. The 00Z CAMs indicate the initial discrete storms merging into clusters or one or more MCSs Tuesday evening into night along a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Severe wind gusts will become the predominant hazard with that mode transition. Additional storms are possible near and west of the lee trough in southeast WY, northeast CO, and the NE Panhandle during the afternoon into evening. The local environment will feature a deep and well-mixed boundary layer, which will support the potential for a few severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to support scattered thunderstorm development by early to mid afternoon from the Blue Ridge Mountains east to the lee trough and Carolina sea breeze. Vertical shear will remain weak, which will limit the potential for storm organization. Nonetheless, the presence of steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential, leading to the risk for sporadic damaging wind occurrences, especially with any storm clusters. East Texas into the Sabine River Valley A weak vorticity lobe is forecast to pivot south through the Ozark Plateau into the ArkLaTex on Tuesday with a preceding zone of forcing for ascent acting on a very moist and moderately unstable air mass. A resultant increase in storm coverage is expected through the afternoon with some CAM signal for a loosely organized cold pool to evolve, which will support the potential for sporadic damaging wind gusts. Great Basin The 00Z models suggest that a weak mid-level disturbance will move through northeast NV and northern UT Tuesday afternoon into the evening, enhancing lift and vertical shear to some extent. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of that feature by mid to late afternoon atop a deep and well-mixed boundary layer, which will be supportive of locally severe wind gusts.