Severe Storm Risk - Crandall, IN

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEBRASKA SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and potentially some tornado risk are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into portions of Nebraska, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes An upper ridge will remain anchored from the Southwest into the central Rockies and High Plains through the period. Seasonably strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a very warm, moist, and unstable environment from parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the central Plains. This will result in a conditionally favorable environment across a broad region, though with generally subtle forcing mechanisms, considerable uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution through the period. Aside from any MCV influence on early-day convection, the most likely initiation zone for diurnal storm development currently appears to be from northern MN into WI, where one or more low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maxima may impinge upon the destabilizing environment. Initial supercell development would be possible in this area, posing a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and potentially some tornado risk. Upscale growth into one or more intense southeastward-moving clusters with attendant severe-wind swaths would then be possible with time. However, some guidance remains relatively sparse with afternoon/evening development, resulting in uncertainty regarding coverage and favored corridors of potentially significant severe potential. Greater probabilities and an upgrade to Level-3/Enhanced Risk may eventually be needed, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved later today. NE into adjacent parts of southeast SD and western IA A somewhat separate area of potential severe-storm development is expected from parts of central NE into southeast SD. Initiation is expected near a weak surface trough as temperatures warm to near above 100 F and CINH is removed. MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will favor development of a few organized cells and/or clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph appear to be the most likely hazard within the hot/well-mixed environment. Isolated hail may also occur with any supercell, despite rather warm temperatures aloft. Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas/GA/north FL A seasonably deep upper trough will persist across much of the eastern CONUS today. A modest increase in midlevel northwesterly flow is expected with time from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, GA, and north FL. Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid Atlantic. However, MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt of effective shear may support occasional storm organization, with a primary threat of locally damaging wind. Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected across the Carolinas into GA/FL. Deep-layer flow/shear will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, but may still be sufficient for transient storm organization and a localized damaging-wind threat. Southern MT/northern WY into the Black Hills High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest relative coverage expected across parts of northern WY and southern MT. Buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts as storms move eastward towards the Black Hills before weakening this evening.