Severe Storm Risk - Creola, OH

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SUMMARY A swath of damaging to severe gusts is expected across southern Lower Michigan over the next few hours. Scattered damaging gusts are also likely over portions of the Mid Atlantic. Otherwise, scattered wind damage and large hail are still expected from parts of Nebraska into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms remain possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. 20Z Update The main change made to this outlook was to upgrade southern Lower MI to a Category 3/Enhanced Risk, driven by 30 percent/CIG1 wind probabilities. A cold-pool-driven MCS, with some bowing tendencies and a history of producing numerous measured gusts in the 60-70 mph, is rapidly approaching southern Lower MI. KGRR inbound velocity data shows a rear-inflow jet exists with this MCS, and surface observations/latest mesoanalysis show a favorable environment in place for bow-echo persistence. Surface temperatures are exceeding 90 F in spots, amid 70-75 F surface dewpoints, yielding a gradient of 1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Up to 30 kts of effective bulk shear coincides with this buoyancy gradient, with vectors oriented normal to the MCS leading-line orientation. Therefore, the expectation is for a damaging wind swath to occur over southern Lower MI with the passage of this MCS. At least scattered gusts will likely exceed 50 kts in intensity, and a few of these gusts may exceed 75 mph. 30 percent wind-driven probabilities were also added over portions of eastern PA into far southeastern NY and NJ, where surface temperatures are exceeding 100 F in spots ahead of a developing multicellular cluster. While vertical wind shear is modest, the well-mixed boundary layer is yielding low-level lapse rates well over 8 C/km on a widespread basis, with corresponding DCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg. As such, several of the stronger storm cores may produce wet downbursts capable of at least tree/wire damage on a scattered basis, and a few severe gusts are also possible. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.