Severe Storm Risk - Cumberland Furnace, TN

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening. Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys An MCS with a convectively augmented parent MCV extends from parts of central MO into southeast KS/northern OK this morning. The airmass downstream of this MCS across MO is not particularly unstable, but greater low-level moisture and related instability is present across northeast OK and vicinity. Current expectations are for the MCS/MCV to continue eastward across the mid MS Valley and Ozarks through the morning while posing an isolated threat for severe/damaging winds. With time, some re-invigoration of the MCS appears possible into the lower OH Valley as destabilization occurs with daytime heating. Trailing outflow from the morning convection will serve as a focus for additional thunderstorms later today as a compact/enhanced low-level jet moves eastward from the Ozarks into the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. There still appears to be potential for more robust thunderstorm development this afternoon across these areas along and south of the outflow boundary/front. Moderate instability will likely develop in the presence of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be sufficient to support supercells. Enhanced low-level shear will also be present owing to the eastward-migrating low-level jet. This will foster a risk for tornadoes with any sustained supercells, and a strong tornado appears possible. Considered greater tornado probabilities and a categorical upgrade in a narrow corridor across parts of MO/IL/IN, but there remains too much uncertainty regarding sufficient destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. The severe/damaging wind threat will also increase, with the potential for multiple clusters to form and track eastward into the lower OH Valley through the evening and early overnight hours. Convective development should also occur farther west along/near the composite outflow boundary/front across the Ozarks into southern KS/northern OK by peak afternoon heating. Strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear will likely support updraft organization and a mix of supercells and multicell clusters. Large to very large hail should be the primary threat initially, but deep-layer shear vectors aligned largely parallel to the boundary should foster convective mergers and an increasing threat for severe/damaging winds with multiple clusters that should form and spread east-southeastward across OK and the Ozarks through the evening. At least an isolated severe wind threat may persist overnight with southward extent across the southern Plains into AR given the large degree of buoyancy forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough over WY this morning will move east-southeastward towards the central High Plains by this afternoon. Enhanced westerly flow aloft attendant to this shortwave trough will overspread the central High Plains through the day. A convectively reinforced front extends from northwest OK into the central High Plains, and modest low-level upslope flow is forecast to the north of this boundary today. Recent short-term guidance continues to suggest that moderate instability will develop with filtered daytime heating in the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear. Isolated supercells that can develop in this regime across eastern CO into western NE/KS should pose mainly a large to isolated very large (2+ inches) hail risk initially, before some clustering/upscale growth possibly occurs this evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds would become an increasing concern if this mode transition occurs, and isolated significant gusts (75+ mph) appear possible.