Severe Storm Risk - Curwensville, PA

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains today into night. Northeast States A complex but potentially active convective day is in store for parts of the northeast US today. A fast-moving MCS and associated mid-level shortwave trough is over Lake Michigan. This system is forecast to track rapidly eastward across Lower MI and southwest ON this morning before emerging into western NY/PA this afternoon. A consensus of overnight CAM solutions indicate this will be the focus for strong-severe thunderstorms that track east-southeastward during the afternoon and evening toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Ample low-level moisture is present in this corridor. This along with daytime heating well into the 80s and steep low-level lapse rates will favor damaging wind gust potential in the strongest storms. A north-south surface boundary is expected to lie from central NY into east-central PA this afternoon, where low-level shear will be locally enhanced to pose some risk of a few tornadoes. The primary uncertainty for a more widespread severe event today is the presence of considerable morning convection currently over northwest PA and western NY. These storms are well-ahead of the main forcing feature, and decrease confidence in significant destabilization over the primary risk area this afternoon. These early storms may pose a damaging wind and hail risk through the day, especially after a few hours of heating. MT Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains of southwest MT this afternoon. Strong winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will aid in the risk of damaging wind gusts as the activity spreads northeastward through the early evening. CO/WY Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains of northern/western CO and southern WY. This activity will spread northeastward into eastern WY/western NE where inverted-v thermodynamic profiles are expected with 40-50 t-td spreads. This may result in locally damaging wind gusts.