Severe Storm Risk - Darby, MT

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA SUMMARY Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of western Texas/Oklahoma. More isolated severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah, and the northern Rockies. Southern Plains Southwesterly flow aloft is present today over AZ/NM, with large scale height falls and weak ascent overspreading west TX/OK. Low-level southeasterly flow in this region is maintaining a moist and potentially moderately unstable air mass, with breaks in the clouds leading to pockets of CAPE over 2000 J/kg. By late afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop from the Davis mountains northward into the TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings in this area show a deeply mixed boundary-layer suggestive of a damaging wind and large hail potential. These storms will congeal and move eastward into western OK during the evening, spreading into greater low-level moisture and CAPE profiles. The risk of hail may increase as this happens. Northeast CO/Northwest KS Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Palmer Ridge to the east of Denver, and over the plains of southeast CO. These storms will track northeastward through the early evening, with some increase in low-level shear expected. This may result in a supercell or two capable of large hail, damaging winds, or perhaps a tornado. MT A consensus of 12z model guidance continues to show that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form over the terrain of western and central MT. This activity will spread northward toward the Canadian border, through a region of 1000 J/kg CAPE and a deeply mixed boundary-layer. This would support a risk of isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail in the strongest storms.