Severe Storm Risk - Denning, AR

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS...WYOMING...AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains, with large hail and severe/damaging winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential may exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur. Southern/Central Plains and Ozarks Strong convection continues at midday across south-central Kansas into northern Oklahoma, augmenting a front that will continue to settle south-southeastward toward the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma by this evening. Some of this convection has been organized/bowing on a small scale this morning and some diurnal intensification could occur through peak heating as it progresses southeastward, but the continued influence of proximal rain-cooled air casts some uncertainty regarding intensity/peak risk timing. The most likely scenario will be for the possibility of deeper convective development later this afternoon on the west-southwest flank of these lingering early day storms, where outflow modifies/intercepts the surface front, and in north and east proximity to a Panhandles surface low. Additional post-frontal low-level upslope flow-related potentially severe storms are also expected across southeast Colorado near the Front Range southeastward into the Panhandle beginning mid/late afternoon. This anticipated development later today is expected to be focused in a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability from southeast Colorado east-southeastward into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. With strong deep-layer shear expected, initial supercells should pose a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado risk. But, convective mode will probably tend to become mixed/messy quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge with each other. Low-level shear is forecast to markedly increase near the surface boundary later today as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Resultant elongated/curved hodographs support the potential for tornadoes, especially with any thunderstorms that can remain at least semi-discrete. And given the enhanced effective SRH near the boundary, a strong tornado appears possible if a supercell mode can be maintained. Higher-based convection will develop farther south into the southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This activity should tend to cluster and spread east-southeastward across northwest Texas, the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and eventually into western Oklahoma this evening, while continuing to pose mainly a severe wind threat before eventually weakening. Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York 50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians through this evening as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great Lakes. A weak surface low should also develop eastward over the lower Great Lakes, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in the 50s to low 60s F ahead of the front. Coupled with poor mid lapse rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across parts of Ohio into western/central Pennsylvania and western New York where slightly stronger low-level flow and related shear should exist. A somewhat higher/more focused severe potential appears to exist across central/eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania from mid-afternoon through early evening. Utah/Wyoming/Montana and far eastern Idaho Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from Utah into Wyoming this afternoon and evening. Have introduced a wind-related categorical Slight risk for the potential of semi-organized storms as a mid-level speed max interfaces with an unstable/well-mixed boundary layer across Wyoming. Otherwise, occasional hail may also exist farther north in southeast Idaho, Wyoming, and parts of Montana, where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level flow/deep-layer shear, and pockets of greater instability should support more robust convection.