Severe Storm Risk - Dover, DE

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains southeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in the Mid-Atlantic and central/southern Arizona. Northern/Central Plains into MN/IA/MO A modest but weakening low-level jet across portions of NE/SD may support ongoing elevated convection this morning, mainly across NE. This activity will weaken and spread southeast through the morning hours, but could pose a marginal risk for hail. The forecast for the afternoon into nighttime hours becomes complex and uncertain. Broad northwesterly flow aloft will modestly strengthen by late afternoon/early evening as several shortwave impulses migrate through the base of an upper low/trough centered over central Canada. Height falls are expected to be weak, and warm mid-level temperatures will pose capping issues. Nevertheless, surface troughing across the northern/central High Plains will result in south/southeasterly low-level flow, transporting 60s F dewpoints northward across the central Plains and MO Valley ahead of a southward sagging surface front oriented across ND and northern MN late in the period. Increasing boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Several areas of convection may develop during the late afternoon/evening near the surface trough, and overnight near the southward-sagging surface front. Given weak large-scale ascent and warm midlevels, it remains uncertain where storm development is most likely and how storm coverage will evolve. With an increasing low-level jet across the central Plains during the nighttime hours, some convection could develop atop a capping inversion, or along the surface front near the ND/SD border. Isolated large hail is possible with this activity. If surface-based convection can develop within the strongly unstable airmass, damaging wind gusts also will be possible. Additional high-based convection is possible across CO and western KS/NE. A hot and well mixed boundary layer could support strong outflow winds with this activity as well. Mid-Atlantic A modest midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the region through afternoon/early evening. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will support moderate instability. Vertical shear is expected to be sufficient for organized cells and clusters with an attendant risk for damaging wind gusts. The strongest cells could also produce small hail. AZ Easterly midlevel flow will persist on the southern periphery of an upper high over the Four Corners. Steep midlevel lapse rates and persistent moisture across the region will foster thunderstorm development across the higher terrain during the evening. The hot and well mixed boundary layer will support strong outflow gusts as convection moves westward off higher terrain toward the lower deserts.