Severe Storm Risk - Dundee, MS

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS SUMMARY Widely scattered but intense severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes all possible. Central/Southern High Plains Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High Plains today. As daytime heating occurs and low-level clouds present this morning gradually erode, 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by mid to late afternoon in a narrow corridor across northeast CO into southeast WY. This instability will also be aided by the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorms should eventually develop this afternoon across much the region as strong mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a shortwave trough over the northern Plains overspreads the central Rockies/High Plains. The highest convective coverage is anticipated from south-central/southeast WY into northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy should be maximized. Deep-layer shear will be rather strong, with values up to 50-60 kt. These conditions will support the potential for intense supercells capable of large to very large hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter possible). Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two in this region as well. Eventual upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of producing severe winds is probable into eastern CO/western KS this evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible. Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may also occur. Upper Midwest A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread WI and vicinity today as a weak shortwave trough moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Extensive cloudiness is prevalent across WI this morning, which will delay daytime heating to some extent. But, seasonably cool temperatures aloft will aid up to around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating along/ahead of a weak cold front. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with moderate to locally strong deep-layer shear providing support for updraft organization. A mix of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds as they spread east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before eventually weakening. Enough confidence exists in this scenario occurring to include greater severe hail probabilities and a corresponding Slight Risk. Great Basin/Four Corners Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances east-northeastward from the lower CO River Valley across the Great Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well mixed with strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon, with weak instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will aid in northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists for strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon and early evening. Have maintained the Slight Risk for severe winds across parts of UT with no changes, as this area still appears to have the best overlap of low-level moisture/instability and scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage. Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across northern OK/southern KS, likely aided by weak low-level warm advection. Recent radar imagery suggests this activity may be acquiring an MCV circulation. This feature should track southeastward towards the ArkLaTex through the day, generally along and north of a surface front stalled near the Red River. Eventual re-strengthening of convection may occur, even though deep-layer flow and related shear should remain rather modest. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores that form, but the potential for a more organized bowing complex is uncertain. Farther south into the lower MS Valley, additional thunderstorms may form this afternoon ahead of the ongoing convection in northern LA in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. While flow through the troposphere is expected to remain fairly modest with southward extent across this region, some loosely organized clusters could pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they spread towards the central Gulf Coast through the early evening. Florida Morning visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the FL Peninsula. A moist low-level airmass with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s is in place along/south of a front draped across north FL. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today, cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support the development of moderate to locally strong instability this afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are expected to develop across the interior FL Peninsula and Atlantic Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible given steepened low-level lapse rates.