Severe Storm Risk - East Middletown, NY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST SUMMARY Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Midwest/Missouri Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley With a broad upper trough centered near/east of the northern CONUS and Canadian Rockies, its lead portion will shift northeastward over the Upper Midwest/Lake Superior vicinity today, with more limited forcing for ascent and height falls farther south, until the late-night arrival of a secondary portion of this trough out of the northern Rockies and north-central High Plains. The primary synoptic low/surface triple point will shift from northern Minnesota north-northeastward into Canada. A moist environment will be in place to the east of an eastward-advancing cold front, with north-northeastward air mass recovery in the wake of overnight/early morning storms (MCS) across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota/Wisconsin. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in the predawn hours across eastern portions of Nebraska/Kansas into northwest Missouri and western Iowa. This development is driven by a strong southwesterly low-level jet and ample elevated moisture transport. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1063. This development could further increase today and shift east-northeastward across Iowa/northern Missouri and eventually northwest Illinois today, complexifying the forecast scenario. These storms could pose a severe-storm risk within this corridor relatively early today, with subsequent development expected by late afternoon near the cold front spanning Minnesota into east-central Iowa, northern Missouri and eastern Kansas. The early day storms, pending how extensive they are, could spatially influence via outflow/cloud debris a preferred zone for redevelopment near the Iowa/Missouri border vicinity toward west-central/northwest Illinois. Meanwhile, farther north, in closer proximity to the large-scale height falls, another preferred zone of severe-storm development could focus across northern/eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Deep-layer shear will be strengthening across these regions and will broadly support initial supercells capable of large hail, with very large hailstones possible with initial development near the cold front late this afternoon and early evening. A predominant large hail risk is also expected late tonight with anticipated mostly elevated development across central/eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas, attributable to the approaching upstream system and an re-intensifying low-level jet and warm/moist advection. Large hail aside, tornadoes will be possible regionally late this afternoon and evening, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). The early day storms could ultimately organize and pose a damaging wind threat, and more broadly so this evening as storms trend upscale near/east of the cold front, potentially leading to a multi-round severe potential in some areas today and tonight. Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the lower 70s F. While some thunderstorms are ongoing early today, additional and more potent thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes. This development will be further influenced by one or more weak eastward-moving MCVs over the upper Ohio River Valley this morning. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard regionally.