Severe Storm Risk - El Dara, IL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND MIDWEST SUMMARY Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Ozarks to Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions, though large hail is also possible, particularly across the High Plains. Lower MI into parts of northwest OH...IN/IL...Eastern MO A mid/upper trough will move from the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the period. A surface low will move across Ontario, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio/mid MS Valleys. Moderate to locally strong destabilization is generally expected along/ahead of the front from parts of MO/IL/IN into lower MI, though early-day convection and cloudiness could limit heating/destabilization with northward extent. Scattered storm development is expected along the front during the afternoon, which will spread east-southeastward into the early evening. Effective shear of generally 30-40 kt will support some storm organization, with a few supercells and/or organized line segments possible. Damaging winds and large hail could accompany the strongest storms. If any supercells can be sustained, then some tornado potential cannot be ruled out, especially from northern IN into parts of lower MI, where some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH is currently forecast. Parts of the Ozarks into the Lower MS Valley Guidance varies regarding potential for morning convection across southeast MO. If substantial early-day convection does develop, then a loosely organized cluster could evolve and move southeastward into parts of western TN and northern MS/AL, with wind-damage potential. Otherwise, scattered storm development is expected from southern MO into AR and eastern OK by late afternoon, potentially aided by an MCV that may emerge from parts of the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear will be marginally supportive of storm organization, and relatively large PW and buoyancy will support potential for downbursts and loosely organized clusters with a wind-damage threat. Isolated hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest updrafts. Some guidance depicts maintenance of a southward-moving storm cluster into late tonight, resulting in some wind-damage potential spreading into parts of southern LA/MS before the end of the period. Central/southern High Plains Across the central High Plains, relatively moist low-level easterly flow and diurnal heating will result in moderate destabilization this afternoon. Scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, with sufficient effective shear within the northwesterly flow regime for organized multicells and possibly a few supercells. Large hail (potentially approaching 2 inches in diameter) and localized severe gusts will be the primary threats. Some clustering/upscale growth is possible during the evening, which could result in maintenance of a severe-wind threat into parts of western KS. For the southern High Plains, deep-layer shear will generally be weaker compared to areas farther north, with relatively disorganized convection expected. However, storm development within a very warm and well-mixed environment will support potential for at least localized severe gusts as convection spreads from eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles. Depending on trends regarding storm coverage and clustering within this regime, greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed.