Severe Storm Risk - Elbow Lake, MN

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes this evening. A couple of tornadoes are possible but damaging wind gusts are expected to be the more widespread hazard, in addition to isolated large to very large hail. Severe storms also remain a concern across parts of the central High Plains and the Northeast. Midwest and Upper Great Lakes Steadily deepening convective activity has developed across the surface boundary in southern Minnesota into northern/western Iowa. Much of this region has been under the influence of a band of mid-level cloud cover this afternoon. Comparison of the 18z and 00z observed soundings from OAX indicate inhibition has eroded. Strong buoyancy also remains across the area amid steep lapse rates and ample deep layer shear. A southerly low-level jet is progged to increase through the evening which should further support convective development. A mix of supercells and clustered multi-cell thunderstorms is expected through the evening, given largely boundary parallel shear. With the increase in the low-level jet, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more discrete supercells. Northeast A cluster of thunderstorms is advancing eastward into portions of northwestern New York just east of Lake Ontario. Sufficient instability remains across portions of central/southern New York, with more rain cooled air from several rounds of showers to the north. This cluster may pose some potential for occasional strong to severe winds downstream through the evening given remaining warm temperatures and moist profiles downstream. Central and southern High Plains Widely scattered thunderstorm activity continues near the dryline across Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. The strongest deep layer shear is located ahead of a short-wave impulse across western Kansas, where 30-40 kts is analyzed in SPC mesoanalysis. Steep lapse rates and deeply mixed profiles will support potential for damaging wind and large hail with supercells through the evening. Southeast Several clusters of thunderstorms continue across portions of Mississippi into eastern Louisiana/southern Arkansas this evening. A few instances of strong to severe wind will continue before gradual weakening occurs with loss of daytime heating over the next couple of hours.