Severe Storm Risk - Elm, PA

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main threat. Mid Atlantic Relatively fast zonal flow is present today from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, with a shortwave trough evident over OH/MI. As this feature tracks eastward, it will push a surface cold front southward across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic region. Considerable clouds are present ahead of the front from KY/WV into VA/PA/NJ, limiting destabilization and confidence in the details of where clusters of storms may form later today. However, given the relatively strong winds aloft and dewpoints in the 60s, it would seem likely that scattered strong to severe storms will occur, capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. TN/MS/AL/GA The remnants of a severe overnight MCS are over AR/west TN/northern MS. This system has considerable mesoscale organization with an MCV noted over eastern AR. A very moist and unstable air mass is in place ahead of this system over northern MS/AL, where heating into the mid 80s will foster thunderstorm intensification this afternoon. Damaging winds are the main concern with these storms, but a low-level jet feature associated with the MCV could result in a few supercell structures and the risk of a tornado or two. Activity will track into north GA this evening. Refer to MD #1252 for further details. Central High Plains Similar to yesterday, low-clouds are slowly burning off across the High Plains of eastern CO and western SD/NE/KS, where moderate CAPE values will develop by mid-afternoon. Easterly/upslope flow will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern WY and southward along the DCVZ in CO. These storms will track into the CAPE axis, where favorable deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes.