Severe Storm Risk - Emporia, KS

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will potentially be capable of severe gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. Central KS into OK A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being the primary concern. Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer, promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO. Northeast CO/NE Panhandle Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.