Severe Storm Risk - Erie, PA

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THE MID SOUTH...AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mid South and southern Great Plains with 60 to 75 mph gusts being the primary hazard. Scattered damaging winds also remain possible this afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Southern Great Plains The primary change with this outlook update was an upgrade to a Level 2/Slight risk for portions of northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle driven by the inclusion of 15% wind probabilities based on the latest CAM and time-lagged ensemble guidance. The 5% wind probability and CIG1 were similarly expanded across adjacent portions of the southern Great Plains. See Mesoscale Discussion 2085 for additional short-term details. Mid Atlantic Isolated convective initiation is ongoing across portions of the central Blue Ridge in far northwestern Virginia as of 1955 UTC. Latest CAM/time-lagged ensemble guidance continues to suggest the potential for some upscale growth/clustering of convection downstream across northern Virginia. Some consideration was given to a targeted upgrade to a Level 2/Slight risk (via the inclusion of a 15% wind probability) for this area; however, weak low-level flow sampled by the Sterling (LWX) VWP and cooler downstream temperatures in the upper-70s F lend uncertainty to the coverage of the resultant severe risk and precluded an upgrade at this time. A locally greater risk for damaging wind gusts could materialize should a cluster of storms develop, however. See MCD 2083 for additional details. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were made based on recent convective/observational trends and the latest forecast guidance. See the text below and Mesoscale Discussions 2084 and 2086 for additional details.