Severe Storm Risk - Eureka, MO

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop today across parts of the southern/central Plains, with large hail and severe/damaging winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential should exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur. Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks Severe potential today across the southern/central Plains will be heavily influenced by ongoing convection this morning extending from western KS into northeast OK. These thunderstorms are largely tied to modest warm/moist advection at low levels, evidenced by recent VWPs across this area (KDDC/KVNX/KINX) and the 12Z observed OUN sounding. Latest surface analysis indicates a weak surface low is present across southeast CO, with a front extending eastward from this low across KS. A secondary boundary/warm front was also analyzed along/near the KS/OK border, with generally 70s surface dewpoints and greater instability present to its south. The thunderstorms across western KS have recently strengthened, with evidence of a leading supercell and some attempt at clustering just to its west with a possible/developing MCV circulation. This activity may pose at least an isolated hail/wind threat through the morning as it tracks eastward across southern KS. But, it may tend to remain somewhat elevated to the north of the warm front. Accordingly, the overall severe threat with this convection is uncertain. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1307 for more details on the short-term severe threat across KS. The net effect of the morning convection may be to reinforce the boundary across northern OK/southern KS. Most guidance continues to suggest that a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability will exist this afternoon from southeast CO (to the east of the weak surface low) east-southeastward into southern KS/northern OK. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated across this area later today as a weak mid-level shortwave trough ejects eastward over the central High Plains. With strong deep-layer shear expected, initial supercells should pose a threat for large hail and severe gusts. But, convective mode will probably tend to become mixed/messy quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge with each other. Low-level shear is forecast to markedly increase near the surface boundary across southern KS/northern OK through the afternoon and evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Elongated/curved hodographs suggest a threat for a few tornadoes will exist, especially with any thunderstorms that can remain at least semi-discrete. And given the enhanced effective SRH near the boundary, a strong tornado appears possible if a supercell mode can be maintained. Higher-based convection should develop farther south into the southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This activity should tend to cluster and spread eastward across northwest TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and eventually into western OK this evening, while continuing to pose mainly a severe wind threat before eventually weakening. Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York 50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the Midwest/OH Valley into the central Appalachians through this evening as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great Lakes. A weak surface low should also develop eastward over the lower Great Lakes today, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward across the Midwest/OH Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in the 50s to low 60s ahead of the front this morning. Coupled with poor mid lapse rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across parts of OH into western/central PA and western NY where slightly stronger low-level flow and related shear should exist. Confidence in stronger instability and a greater severe risk remains too low for higher hail/wind probabilities with this update. Utah into Wyoming and Montana Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from UT into WY this afternoon and evening. Some chance for occasional hail may also exist farther north in southeast ID, WY, and parts of MT, where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level flow/deep-layer shear, and pockets of greater instability should support more robust convection.