Severe Storm Risk - Federal Heights, CO

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA SUMMARY Widely scattered damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast this afternoon and early evening. Widely scattered large hail occurrences are expected across portions of western and central Montana this afternoon and evening. Additional areas at risk for isolated severe wind and hail are parts of the Interior West, over the northern and central High Plains, and from the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the Ozark Plateau and Gulf Coast states. Southern Appalachians through coastal SC and GA A moist airmass is in place across the region this morning, with recent surface analysis revealing a reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints. Strong heating is anticipated across this region today, with afternoon temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s. This strong heating will destabilize the airmass and contribute to moderate/strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg likely during the late afternoon. A subtle shortwave trough will progress through the northwesterly flow aloft extending over the area, interacting with this destabilized airmass to support thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will generally be weak, limiting updraft organization and promoting a predominantly outflow-dominant storm mode. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and abundant moisture will promote the potential for damaging wind gusts with any longer-lived multi-cells or line segments. Updraft augmentation due to storm interactions could also result in isolated hail. Ozark Plateau into the Gulf Coast States A corridor of greater low-level moisture arcs from the Southeast states through Arkansas and Missouri. Daytime heating will destabilize this airmass, helping to support thunderstorm development in areas of low-level confluence. Weak forcing for ascent and vertical shear are expected to limit storm organization. However, the degree of instability will support briefly intense pulse-type storms capable of locally damaging wet microbursts during the afternoon and early evening hours. Eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the lower Missouri Valley A linear MCS continues to push eastward across the central Plains this morning. A notable vorticity maximum has developed within the northern portion of this line. Its motion appears to be more northeasterly than the line itself, and new development is occurring downstream of this vorticity maximum across south-central/southeast SD and adjacent northeast NE. A corridor of relatively greater low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low 70s) exists downstream of this vorticity maximum and attendant MCS from eastern SD through western IA and into northern MO. General expectation is for thunderstorm coverage and intensity to increase later this morning/early afternoon as the vorticity maximum/remnant MCS interact with this moist and diurnally destabilizing airmass. Much of this development is expected to occur along or to the immediate cool side of the surface boundary that extends through portions of the middle and lower MO Valley. Occasionally strong updrafts could result in isolated hail and/or damaging gusts, but the weak mid-level flow and associated modest deep-layer shear should limit storm organization and contribute to clustered multicellular mode. Northern Plains into the northern/central High Plains Modest height falls may begin to impinge on northern/central High Plains during the early evening as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves a belt of stronger southwesterlies just west of the region. This modest ascent will augment low-level convergence along the lee trough to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development where the lingering convective inhibition can be overcome. This appears most likely across southeast WY and northeast CO where persistent low-level easterly flow could keep dewpoints in the 60s. High-based, outflow-dominant storms will support the potential for isolated strong to severe gusts. Increasing mid-level flow will support stronger deep-layer vertical shear farther north (into eastern MT and western ND), but stronger convective inhibition may linger, casting doubt whether storms will initiate. If initiation is realized, storm motion could take it into the more moist and buoyant airmass north of the surface low where thermodynamic profiles are favorable for large to very large hail. Will maintain 5% wind/hail probabilities but introduce a CIG1 for hail given the conditional potential. Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies Increasing height falls and strengthening mid/upper-level flow will spread across the region today ahead of a vigorous shortwave trough pivoting through the base of a Pacific Northwest upper low. Thunderstorm development is anticipated over the higher terrain before then progressing northeastward towards lower elevations. Deep-layer vertical shear of 40 to 50 kt will support supercells, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Greater buoyancy is expected across central MT, but low-level stability will likely persist across this region as well, potentially limiting the severe-wind and tornado potential. Weaker instability is forecast from northeast NV and northern UT into central and eastern ID. However, the presence of steep lapse rates and kinematics mentioned above may yield a few severe storms capable of severe wind gusts.