Severe Storm Risk - Fillmore, IN

There is a Enhanced Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Severe storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail are expected across the Great Lakes and Midwest through tonight. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind are possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. Midwest/Great Lakes to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys A complex forecast scenario again exists today complicated by numerous mesoscale factors and well-above-normal short-term guidance variability. There nonetheless is an appreciable broad regional severe potential, at least conditionally, attributable to robust or even extreme source-region buoyancy and an appreciable belt of northwesterly flow aloft (50+ kt at 500 mb), which could easily support well-organized wind-producing swaths regionally into the afternoon and tonight. A high-moisture-content airmass is prevalent regionally to the south of a cold front that extends across South Dakota/Minnesota toward Lake Superior. Several corridors of storms are ongoing early this morning, including across the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan/far northern Wisconsin, as well as southwest lower Michigan, with some uptick in ACCAS/mid-level convection in the predawn hours across eastern Iowa/far southwest Wisconsin. Increasing daytime storms, in terms of coverage/intensity/ organization, may stem from, but are not limited to, these early day corridors. Bouts of large hail will be possible given the degree of vertical shear/buoyancy, and some tornado risk could exist, but the most prominent concern would be for damaging wind potential, particularly if one or more south/southeast-moving forward-propagating clusters emerge, which currently appear most probable this afternoon and tonight across eastern Wisconsin/western Michigan and Lake Michigan vicinity southeastward into Indiana, western Ohio, and Illinois. Central High Plains Moist, post-frontal surface flow is expected across much of Nebraska/South Dakota, shifting from northerly early in the day to more easterly by the afternoon. Dewpoints will initially be in the mid to upper 70s F, although strong boundary-layer mixing will likely result in dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s/low 60s across the Nebraska Panhandle to the low 70s across eastern Nebraska. This reservoir of low-level moisture coupled with strong heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in a corridor of moderate to extreme buoyancy from eastern Wyoming/northeast Colorado/southwest South Dakota eastward across south-central South Dakota and much of Nebraska. Most of the guidance indicates a subtle, convectively augmented vorticity maximum will progress eastward through the northern periphery of the Four Corner upper ridge. This should contribute to thunderstorm development across the high terrain, which would then progress downstream into a more moist and unstable airmass. One or more clusters could evolve, but the overall predictability of the convective evolution is low. That said, environmental conditions support the potential for strong to severe gusts, including the potential for some over 75 mph. Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva Isolated damaging wind potential will exist during the afternoon/evening, especially near/east of I-95 in vicinity of a surface trough, where marginal buoyancy and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger updrafts/downdrafts. Southeast Arizona Isolated severe-caliber wind gusts are possible over southeast Arizona as mid-level moisture and diurnal heating leads to scattered storms over the higher terrain. Cells are expected to move westward into warmer temperatures and deeper boundary-layer mixing, with PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level lapse rates supporting strong convective outflows.