Severe Storm Risk - Fosston, MN

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CAROLINAS...AND A PART OF THE MIDWEST SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts of the Carolinas. Dakotas/northern Plains A belt of south-southwesterly mid-level flow near 50 kt will be maintained from Colorado to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast Colorado this afternoon and then progress northeastward across Nebraska/South Dakota overnight. A few storms will be possible in North Dakota during the afternoon with perhaps an isolated severe risk developing, but the primary regional severe risk is expected tonight. Much of the severe threat will likely focus after dark immediately north of the lee cyclone into South Dakota as low-level moisture steadily spreads west-northwestward. This increasing moisture and forcing for ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support thunderstorm development overnight across western South Dakota into southern North Dakota. The environment will favor supercells, which will tend to be elevated, and small thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Upper Mississippi Valley A bowing cluster has weakened and tended to grow downscale this morning but otherwise persists across eastern Iowa at midday. Some redevelopment/re-intensification could occur on the cluster's southern periphery near a warm front. However, this is highly uncertain given the increasing mid-level capping/EML advection the remainder of the night. Later tonight, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused across Wisconsin along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts with mostly elevated storms tonight. Carolinas and far southern Virginia this afternoon/evening A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern Appalachians will move southeastward into the Piedmont by this afternoon. An airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2 inches) will heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds that are more prevalent over western North Carolina. Steepening low-level lapse rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30 kt) may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing thunderstorm clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded thunderstorm cores until around sunset. West Texas late this afternoon/evening Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V profiles will yield isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.