Severe Storm Risk - Framingham, MA

• Severe Storm Risk

  Sun 12:30 PM - Mon 08:00 AM

  There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...OHIO VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms appear most likely this afternoon into this evening across parts of the Northeast, portions of the northern and central Plains, and perhaps the Ohio Valley. Synopsis A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northeast today with increasing mid-level flow ahead of an approaching jet streak. A low-amplitude ridge will build somewhat across the Upper Midwest. Farther west, mid-level flow will strengthen across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains as a trough amplifies on the Pacific Northwest coast. Northeast Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast through mid afternoon as the airmass continues to destabilize. Midday surface analysis indicates temperatures are warming into the 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As the cold front advances east into this uncapped airmass, scattered thunderstorms should develop. Shear of 30 to 35 knots and relatively long/straight hodographs will support the potential for supercells. Weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for large hail, but the overall favorable shear with strong venting aloft and potential supercells may support some isolated large hail. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, both from initial cells and also from any clusters which develop. Any stronger clusters with bowing segments could support a better organized damaging wind swath. The greatest wind damage threat will likely exist from western Massachusetts to far southern Maine. Southeast MT into the Dakotas and Central Plains Lee troughing is forecast to extend southward from eastern MT into the central High Plains near and south of the westerlies confined to the northern tier of states. Elevated weak thunderstorm activity along the ND/SD border may continue but considerable uncertainty exists whether these storms will intensify and pose a severe risk this afternoon. Meanwhile, farther west, moist low levels arc from southeast MT southeastward through west-central SD and south into NE/northwest KS. Strong heating will contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass from the central Plains states into eastern MT. Easterly low-level flow beneath 30-40 kt 500 mb flow in southeast MT will support organized storms, including supercell potential. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop and spread east into the Dakotas. Other isolated to widely scattered storms are possible from SD southward into NE/CO/KS border vicinity late this afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail will be possible with any supercells that develop within this general region. However, the severe wind threat may increase by this evening and become the main threat as storms congeal into one or more clusters or MCS. Ohio Valley Visible-satellite/radar composite shows an elongated area of showers/thunderstorms from northern MO east into western OH in conjunction with an MCV moving east from IL into IN. Additional storm development along the composite front/trailing outflow boundary is expected, but timing of this storm activity remains unclear. Nonetheless, differential heating along the baroclinic zone will yield 2000 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE amidst moderate effective shear (25-35 kt). A few clusters are forecast to eventually evolve later this afternoon into the evening with the stronger storms capable primarily of a wind-damage threat.