Severe Storm Risk - Fremont, NE

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY WORDING SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms with large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. A couple of strong tornadoes and hailstones up to 2-3 inches in diameter are possible. Southern/Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley Fairly substantial changes have been made to the outlook based on latest observational and guidance trends. Namely, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded into northern OK to account for the potential of both surface-based supercells this afternoon, and elevated supercells this evening/tonight. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward into north-central TX for a somewhat more conditional/uncertain supercell threat. The eastern extent of severe probabilities have also been expanded in MO to account for a potential cluster producing severe/damaging winds occurring late tonight into early Monday morning. A weak lead mid-level vorticity maximum over the central High Plains this morning should continue to aid elevated thunderstorm development across KS through the afternoon. Increasing MUCAPE with persistent low-level warm/moist advection and steepening mid-level lapse rates combined with strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. This convection will probably tend to remain elevated to the north of a front as it spreads east-northeastward over the central Plains, but scattered large hail may occur given the overall favorable environment. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail also appears possible with the strongest cores. Eventually, this activity may pose a greater threat for damaging winds across eastern KS into western MO by late afternoon/early evening, if it can become truly surface based. A more notable mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject northeastward across the Southwest and southern/central High Plans today, accompanied by a 50-60 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the southeast CO/northeast NM vicinity in response, with the surface low developing into the OK Panhandle and southwest KS by this evening. Strong to locally extreme instability is once again forecast to develop to the east of a sharpening dryline across western/central OK as daytime heating of a moist airmass occurs. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the placement of an effective warm front by late afternoon/early evening, but current expectations are for this boundary to be draped somewhere near north-central OK by peak afternoon heating. The surface triple point may serve as a focus for convective initiation today, although better large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector will be delayed until this evening and past peak diurnal heating. Greater than average uncertainty exists regarding the potential for surface-based convective initiation today in OK/north TX. Still, it appears possible that multiple supercells may develop with gradual erosion of lingering MLCIN and weak ascent preceding the ejecting shortwave trough. Any supercells that can root and ingest the ample low-level moisture will be capable of producing very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) given a overall rather favorable environment. The tornado potential is less clear through the day, but a southerly low-level jet will quickly strengthen this evening and aid curved/elongated hodographs with strong effective SRH. A somewhat conditional/uncertain threat for a couple of strong tornadoes remains apparent, especially if any supercells that can form this afternoon persist into the evening. Additional, somewhat elevated supercells may form this evening into tonight along/north of the warm front from northwest OK near the triple point into KS. This activity will also pose a threat for large to very large hail. Some guidance suggests a cluster eventually evolves from this convection across eastern KS into MO late tonight/early Monday morning. If this occurs, then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds would exist. Farther south into TX, the forcing for ascent will remain weak/nebulous along the dryline. Still, some potential for a few supercells is apparent across north-central TX where the greatest heating and minimal MLCIN is forecast to exist. Large to very large hail should be the main threat with any splitting supercells that can develop this afternoon along/east of the dryline and be sustained. ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast A small cluster will continue tracking southeastward this morning from southern MS to the central Gulf Coast. With sufficient low-level moisture and instability in place ahead of this convection, isolated damaging winds may occur. A pair of supercells across northeast TX have fluctuated in intensity over the past couple of hours. The potential for additional thunderstorms to form on the western flank/outflow of this morning convection remains unclear given weak large-scale forcing and the low-level jet forecast to weaken further through the morning. If any additional convection can form, it would pose an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat.