There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.
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National Severe Storm Outlook
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts and hail may also occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains.
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and southern Appalachians
A loosely organized band of storms, with some semi-discrete storms/prior supercell on its southwestern flank around sunrise, will continue to progress east-southeastward across the Cumberland Plateau toward/across the Appalachians spine early today. Some severe risk may exist this morning with the aforementioned storms on the southwest flank including along the Kentucky/West Virginia/Virginia border vicinity, but storm-associated cloud cover and precipitation will otherwise be an important and somewhat uncertain factor for destabilization with northeastward extent regionally later today.
The region will be influenced by some additional large-scale amplification of the upper trough along the East Coast, with a belt of notably strong (45-55 kt around 500 mb) northwesterly flow aloft, as sampled by upstream 12z observed RAOBs from the likes of Wilmington OH and Pittsburgh PA, that is expected to spread southeastward toward the region today. A moist air mass will persist ahead of the east-southeastward-moving cold front, with the strongest destabilization across the southern Appalachians vicinity and Carolinas. Recovery/destabilization is generally expected across Virginia in the wake of the early day convection, allowing for probable severe-storm development into mid/late afternoon. Severe storms may occur farther north across the Mid-Atlantic within a more narrow warm sector.
Ample deep-layer shear and moderate low-level shear/SRH will support a combination of supercells and organized line segments, with a more discrete mode, and longer duration thereof, expected with the southwesternmost extent of storms regionally from southern Virginia into the Carolinas/southern Appalachians. Some tornado potential will exist aside from a more prevalent damaging wind risk this afternoon and evening as storms spread toward coastal areas.
Central High Plains
A ridge-peripheral low-amplitude/subtle shortwave trough will influence scattered thunderstorm development later today. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain and drift eastward into the lower elevations. Moderate buoyancy across the High Plains and upwards of 30-40 kt (stronger northward regionally) effective shear will support sustained storms. Steep low-level lapse rates and surface-temperature dewpoint spreads near 30 degrees F will support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, aside from some hail this afternoon and evening.
