Severe Storm Risk - Giddingsville, NY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUMMARY Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Northeast and upper/middle Ohio Valley Have upgraded portions of the region to a categorical Slight Risk with expectations of a semi-focused regional corridor of wind damage later this afternoon through early evening. Within large-scale upper troughing over eastern Canada, a strong west-southwesterly mid-level jet will overspread the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and Northeast later today into tonight. A surface cold front will likewise track eastward across these regions through tonight. A seasonably moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front, but poor lapse rates aloft (around 6-6.5 C/km) and cloud cover should limit the degree of destabilization that can occur this afternoon, although cloud cover has tended to thin/abate since early this morning across the upper Ohio Valley. While the main influence of the upstream upper-level trough will not arrive until this evening, strengthening mid-level flow through the day will support 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear and the potential for organized bands of convection. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the front by mid afternoon (around 19-22Z) from parts of Ohio into western New York, and then spread quickly eastward across the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. The deep-layer shear will be strong enough for some supercells initially, with perhaps a marginal/isolated hail threat even with the poor lapse rates present aloft. But, clusters/bowing segments with an isolated damaging wind threat should quickly develop given the linear forcing of the front. This convection is forecast to weaken with eastward extent this evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling, and as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Wyoming and central/northern High Plains to Missouri Valley A closed mid/upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest this morning will move eastward to the northern Rockies/High Plains through the period. Diurnal destabilization will generally be limited ahead of this low, though a narrow zone of weak instability may develop by late afternoon across southern Wyoming, and across northeast Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle in a modest low-level upslope flow regime. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected with sufficient wind profiles for isolated severe hail/wind potential. Elevated thunderstorms should again increase in coverage across western/central South Dakota towards the mid Missouri Valley late tonight into early Monday morning. Moderate MUCAPE and sufficient cloud-layer shear could support an isolated hail threat with the initial development across western/southern South Dakota, though mergers/interactions and weakening buoyancy will likely limit the longevity and eastward extent of this threat into the mid Missouri Valley.