Severe Storm Risk - Gladstone, MO

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this afternoon and evening. Central Plains including Kansas An upper trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will glancingly influence the region later today, along with an embedded disturbance or two emerging from the central Rockies early today. Surface cyclogenesis will occur across Kansas, while a front spreads east-southeastward across the central High Plains, and low-level moisture steadily increases ahead of a dryline. Initiation/sustenance of deep convection is mostly likely to initially occur late this afternoon through around sunset across west-central into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the surface triple point, and to a lesser extent, along the southwestward-extending dryline. Beneath a stout elevated mixed layer, moderate buoyancy with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected across central Kansas, which will be coincident with a belt of 35-40 kt mid-level winds/effective shear. Where storms do develop, forecast parameters will be quite favorable for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds across much of central toward eastern Kansas. Other higher-based severe storms are possible south-southwestward along the dryline. Southern High Plains including OK/TX Panhandles and West TX Widely scattered high-based storms should develop in vicinity of the dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Somewhat higher probabilities/storm coverage should exist across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and Texas South Plains. Various forecast soundings regionally near the dryline reflect a hot and very deeply mixed peak-heating boundary layer, to upwards of 4-4.5km AGL/500mb, with residual CAPE and moderately strong westerlies atop the boundary layer. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts will be possible where storms develop in this hot/steep lapse rate environment, with a diminishing storm intensity through the post-sunset evening hours as the boundary layer cools.