Severe Storm Risk - Glenwood, MN

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SUMMARY A few severe thunderstorms may occur over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon and early evening. Isolated tornadoes, severe hail, and damaging winds will be possible. 20z Update A loosely organized cluster of cells has developed across portions of west-central Minnesota, the strongest of which produced some severe hail. These storms developed along the nose of low-level warm/moist air advection and will continue spreading northeast into portions of central and east-central Minnesota. See MCD #2413 for additional details. Farther south, destabilization has occurred across portions of far southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa. Continued low-level warm/moist air advection and vertical mixing has allowed surface dew point temperatures to reach the low 60s F. This, along with filtered insolation is yielding MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Broad ascent is now overspreading this region, associated with the right-entrance region of the upper-level jet and an approaching mid-level short-wave trough. Additionally, visible satellite shows areas of developing cumulus near the IA/MN border amid a pocket of reduced CIN per the latest surface mesoanalysis. Given these conditions, storms are still expected to initiate and spread northeast, mainly into south-central Minnesota initially. However, considerable uncertainty exists in the ensuing convective mode(s). The aforementioned destabilization combined with ample low-level shear will support a tornado threat if a storm or two can acquire supercellular characteristics. As such, tornado/wind probabilities have been maintained. Any such storm will be accompanied by the threat for severe hail. Therefore, 15% hail probabilities have been added, covering the preexisting Level 2 of 5 (Slight) risk area. Elsewhere, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details.