Severe Storm Risk - Glenwood Springs, CO

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes remain likely this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa. 20z Update OH valley/Midwest Ahead of several MCVs and outflow from prior convection, ample heating is supporting destabilization amid mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across over southern IL/IN into northern KY through this evening. Moderate buoyancy and ~30 kt of deep-layer shear will promote a mix of organized multicell structures capable of damaging gusts and some hail. A tornado or two also remains possible with any stronger linear clusters or transient supercells able to become established. See MCD#735 for short term information. Central High Plains to the Mid MO Valley Several foci for strong to severe convection remain apparent this afternoon along a broad frontal zone from the Rockies/High Plains to the Mid MO Valley. Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening near the intersection of the surface trough and stalled front across the mid MO Valley. Moderate to strong destabilization and 40+ kt of westerly deep-layer shear will support supercell structures with large hail and damaging winds over te mid MO Valley. A locally greater tornado risk may develop with any sustained supercells across parts of eastern NE and southern IA into northern MO where baked low-level flow near a modifying outflow boundary intersects with the stalled front. Initial convective development within the broad upslope regime across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains should continue to intensify as it moves eastward this afternoon/evening encountering progressively stronger buoyancy and shear. This will support supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two from northeastern CO and southwest NE into northwest KS. Upscale growth into one or more clusters with a continued severe threat is expected tonight along and north of the stationary front across the central Plains. See MCD#736 for more information. Southern Plains A conditional risk for strong thunderstorms remains apparent along the dryline late this afternoon/evening across portions of the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Displaced from the stronger deep-layer shear, and likely high based owing the strong low-level mixing, predominately multi cell storms are possible amid steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Confidence in convective initiation remains low but a risk for damaging gusts and hail remains possible.