Severe Storm Risk - Greendale, WI

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI...ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. AN ENHANCED RISK IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PLAINS SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible, including the risk for a few strong tornadoes and very large hail. Southern Great Lakes Strong northern stream will gradually sag south across the northern Rockies as a short-wave trough ejects across MT/WY. This feature is forecast to advance into the eastern portion of the northern Plains by 11/12z as a 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across northwest IA into southern MN. Late timing of this feature is not particularly conducive for assisting daytime convection downstream across northern IL/IN region, as height falls will lag until the latter half of the period. Even so, latest model guidance suggests a weak surface low will evolve along the front and track across northern MO into northwest IL by early evening, then toward southern Lake MI by midnight. Boundary-layer heating should prove instrumental in destabilization ahead of the surface low and forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures may be breached after 21z from northern MO into northern IL. Strong deep-layer shear favors supercell development and this activity will spread east, along/south of a warm front that should extend across northern IL into southern MI. Temperature gradient across this boundary will be sharp so any supercells that spread north of the wind shift will quickly become elevated and pose mainly a hail risk. Environmental conditions south of the front should be characterized by MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg with strong 0-3km SRH. Tornadoes and large hail are certainly possible with warm-sector supercells. Parameters favor the potential for strong tornadoes. This activity will spread east during the overnight hours, possibly as far east as portions of northeast OH, as westerly flow strengthens across this portion of the Great Lakes. Southern Plains Strong upper low is clearly evident on water-vapor imagery over the central Baja Peninsula early this morning. This low is ejecting east-northeast in line with latest model guidance and should advance into north central Mexico by 18z, then into far west TX by early evening as it begins to open up. Strong boundary layer heating will be noted across northeast Mexico, north along the TX/NM border into western KS. As a result, steep 0-3km lapse rates will develop ahead of the approaching trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent should overspread the dry line around 21z and supercells should quickly evolve as midlevel temperatures will cool quickly immediately ahead of the trough. Very large hail is possible with initial supercell development before strong forcing encourages a more linear evolution and possible elongated MCS. Strong winds may accompany this squall line. Latest model guidance also suggests a weak disturbance may eject well ahead of the primary low into south central TX. Deep convection is possible ahead of this feature, but the primary concern will be some hail and gusts.